Unit 1 revision booklet IIII

Question 1

Mandate vs Manifesto

Answer 1

• Manifesto: A pamphlet that outlines (in more or less detail), the policies or programme a party intends to introduce if elected to power. They often include ‘vote-winning’ policies which often are very difficult to achieve, e.g. ‘reducing net migration to the tens of thousands’ (Conservatives 2015). Corbyn’s manifesto in 2017 contained many popular vote-winning pledges, but was criticised as some were un-costed.
• Mandate: An instruction or command that gives authority to a person or body to act in a certain way. A party gains this after an election, authorising it to carry out it’s particular policies laid out at election time. Politicians serve the public by carrying out the aims of their parties. E.g. the 1997 landslide election result for New Labour under Blair give him a strong mandate to govern.

Question 2

3

Valence Issues

Answer 2

• Where most of the electorate hold similar views on an issue, they may decide to vote for one party or another based on how well they think the party and/or it’s leader will manage that particular issue, as well as on a judgement of how well the party managed it in the past. I.e. assessing the competence (see below) These are known as valence issues.
• Valence can also refer to the general ‘image’ of a party and its leader, which may affect voting behaviour. Sometimes also called ‘competence voting’
• Governing competence: A key valence issue – voters often base their decision in voting on how competent they feel the outgoing government has been and the potential competence of the other parties.

Question 3

2

Salience and Rational Choice voting

Answer 3

• Rational Choice voting: Many voters who are not committed to any particular party or ideology, make a rational choice between the parties in order when voting, weighing up the strengths and weaknesses of each, based on valence issues (above) and the particular salience (see below) of issues to them. These voters are of particular importance to parties at election time as they tend to be floating/swing voters (see below).
• Salience: The general meaning of salience is ‘importance’ or how crucial something is. In Politics, an issue is salient if it is particularly important to one group of voters when they are making up their mind which party to vote for.

Question 4

2

Expressive vs Instrumental Voting

Answer 4

• Expressive (or altruistic) voting: Voters deriving satisfaction from voting for the party that they believe will benefit society as a whole. For example, somebody who lives in an area not directly affected by immigration but votes for a party promising to curb net migration to the UK because they believe it will benefit society as a whole.
• Instrumental voting: The other kind of benefit is voting for a party whose policies are likely to directedly benefit the voter themselves. It is self-interested voting. For example, a businessman may vote for a party which promises to reduce business taxes, whilst a benefit claimant may vote a party which promises to make benefits more generous.

Question 5

4

Types of Voters

Answer 5

• Deviant voters: Voters who do not vote the way we would expect based on their social characteristics, especially when it comes to class. Examples are working class supporters of the Conservative party or middle class/upper class voters opting for the Labour party. In the past many ‘Deviant’ Conservative voters were thought to be doing so out of ‘deference’ – i.e. working class voter deferring their support to those whom they considered to be their superiors. This is no longer the case, it is more due to other factors such as the economy or immigration.
• Floating (or swing) voters: A voter who tends to vote unpredictably in different elections and is liable to change the party which they vote for often. These may be voters who feel no particular ideological allegiance to any one party. An example would be someone who voted Conservative in 2015 and then Labour in 2017.
• Tactical Voters: A voter who feels that their first-choice vote will be wasted because it is for a party that has no chance of winning the constituency, may choose to vote for their second choice. By doing this they may still have an influence on the outcome. Typically, supporters of the Lib Dems or Greens vote either Labour or Conservative to try to keep their least favourite party from winning. This is tactical voting.
• Core voters: Parties are often said to be pursuing a ‘core vote strategy’ at election time, i.e. appealing to a fixed base of support, often defined by socio-economic, regional or class identification. This would be defined as working class support for the Labour Party traditionally being seen as Labour’s core support. It can be more complicated than this, as different party leaders can shift the core support, i.e. Thatcher, although a Conservative won some core working class supporters due to some of her key policies, such as selling off council houses. The core vote for the Conservatives and Labour has arguably been eroded over the years, linked potentially to Partisan Dealignment

Question 6

3

Partisan Dealignment

Answer 6

• A process which began in the 1970s whereby voters who used to be strongly attached to one of the two main parties and always voted for it, detached themselves from that relationship in ever greater numbers.
• Fewer and fewer voters have been voting for one of the two main parties, Conservative or Labour, falling from 89% in 1979, to a low of 65% in 2010.
• It is associated with Class Dealignment (see below).
  Arguably, the 2017 election saw at least a disruption in this pattern, with 82% voting either Conservative or Labour (although this may be temporary and not a long term change)

Question 7

5

Class Dealignment

Answer 7

• A trend in which progressively fewer people consider themselves to be a member of a particular social class, and so class has a decreasing impact on their voting behaviour.
• For example, in the past AB voters at the higher end of the social class classification would be more liable to vote Conservative, with 78% doing so in 1964.
• In recent times this has declined dramatically, with only 40% of AB voters voting Conservative in 2010, with only small increases in 2015 and 2017.
• Class cannot be entirely written off as a factor influencing voting behaviour, as evidenced by continued working class support for the Labour party in 2017, support for minor parties and the Brexit vote.
• It could be argued that the C2 working class vote is now Conservative – 47% support in 2019 (a new class trend?) Even centrist New Labour in 1997 received 59% of working class DE voter support, and in 2017 59% backed Corbyn.

Question 8

6

The influence of Class on Voting Behaviour

Answer 8

• The way one voted was part of their class identity and the parties established strong links in communities defined on class lines, i.e. working class communities in the East End of London.
• However, in recent years, the UK has seen a progressive period of class dealignment. A trend in which progressively fewer people consider themselves to be a member of particular social class, and so class has a decreasing impact on their voting behaviour.
  For example, in the past AB voters at the higher end of the social class classification would be more liable to vote Conservative, with 78% doing so in 1964.
• In recent times this has declined dramatically, with only 40% of AB voters voting Conservative in 2010, with only small increases in 2015 and 2017.
• This may be due to the advent of New Labour under Tony Blair, a more centrist middle-ground vision of Labour values, as well as the growth in strength of the centrist Liberal Democrats from the 1980s onwards.
• The 2019 election showed this at its most polar, where the impact of Brexit meant that for the first time DE voters were more likely to vote Conservative than Labour.
• However, class cannot be entirely written off as a factor influencing voting behaviour, as evidenced by continued working class support for the Labour party. Even centrist New Labour in 1997 received 59% of working class DE voter support, and in 2017 59% backed Corbyn. So was 2019 a blip?

Question 9

3

The influence of valence issues on voting behaviour

Answer 9

• Valence issues can be defined as when most of the electorate hold similar views on an issue, they may decide to vote for one party or another based on how well they think the party and/or it’s leader will manage that particular issue, as well as on a judgement of how well the party managed it in the past. These are known as valence issues. This could be a particular issue such as national security, foreign policy or the economy. David Cameron played up to this, constantly referring to the Conservative governments ‘long-term economic plan’ in 2015.
• Valence can also refer to the general ‘image’ of a party and its leader, which may affect voting behaviour. Sometimes also called ‘competence voting.’ Theresa May entered into the 2017 general election arguing she could give the country ‘strong and stable leadership’’ but made several mistakes which made her seem indecisive, such as her U-turn on social care. Tony Blair created an image of youth and vitality in 1997, whilst Neil Kinnock was not as trusted by the electorate in 1992.
• Governing competence is a key valence issue – voters often base their decision in voting on how competent they feel the outgoing government has been and the potential competence of the other parties. Gordon Brown had been attacked in the press in the run up to the 2010 election for his violent temper and poor relationship management with ministers and advisors.

Question 10

4

The relationship between turnout and demographics

Answer 10

• Turnout is the proportion of those eligible to vote in any election who do actually turn up to vote. It expressed as a percentage of the electorate, i.e. 69% of the electorate turned out to vote at the general election in 2017. Demographics refers to a voters age and class in this context.
• The first key aspect of relationship can be seen in the fact that, statistically, the younger you are, the less likely you are to vote. Turnout amongst the 18-24 age bracket has been the lowest of any bracket in the previous three elections. In 2015 it was at 43%, in 2017 it was at 54% and in 2019 47%. A likely cause is widespread apathy amongst young voters and a lack of political education. This is significant because it may make it difficult for more radical parties like the Greens to make an impact, it may discriminate slightly against the Labour Party.
• The second key aspect of the relationship which is linked to the first is that the 65+ age bracket shows high turnout figures in all elections, with 78% in 2015, 71% in 2017 and 74% in 2019. This is sometimes referred to as the grey vote, and is significant because it give a big advantage to the Conservatives and (previously) UKIP, who are most supported by the elderly.
• Thirdly, in terms of class, turnout was among the AB classes was much higher than among the DE (working class) bracket. 68% of AB voters cast their votes in 2019 compared to just 53% of DE voters. This gives an advantage to the Conservatives whose core vote tends to be in the AB classes, and a disadvantage to Labour, who tend to rely on working class DE support.

Question 11

4

The relationship between age and voting behaviour

Answer 11

• It will be seen that there are several factors which suggest a strong relationship between age and voting behaviour in the UK.
• The first aspect of the relationship is that the younger you are, the more likely you are to vote Labour. Winston Churchill once said “if a man is not a socialist by the time he is 20, he has no heart. If he is not a Conservative by the time he is 40, he has no brain.” These words still tend to reflect the pattern between age and voting behaviour today. At the 2019 general election, 19% of the 18-24 bracket voted Conservative compared to 62% for Labour. The older the voter, the less likely voting Labour becomes. In the 65+ age bracket, only 17% voted Labour in 2019. This suggests a strong link between age and voting behaviour.
• The second key aspect of the relationship which is linked to the first is that the broadly Conservative-leaning 65+ age bracket shows high turnout figures in all elections with 78% in 2015, 71% in 2017 and 74% in 2019. This is sometimes referred to as the grey vote, and is significant because it give a big advantage to the Conservatives who 62% of the 65+ bracket voted for in 2019, and UKIP (previously in 2015) who are most supported by the elderly. This suggests a strong link between age and voting behaviour.
• The third key aspect of the relationship can be seen in the fact that, statistically, the younger you are, the less likely you are to vote. Turnout amongst the 18-24 age bracket has been the lowest of any bracket in the previous three elections. In 2015 it was 43%, in 2017 it was at 54% and in 2019 47%. A likely cause is widespread apathy amongst young voters and a lack of political education. This is significant because it may make it difficult for more radical parties like the Greens to make an impact, and it may discriminate slightly against the Labour Party.

Question 12

3

Why turnout at general elections has been seen to be decreasing in recent years

Answer 12

• Wide spread disillusionment with the ‘catch-all’ consensus nature of political parties and poor treatment of youth – scrapping EMAs and raising tuition fees to 9000 a year. Apathy towards the mainstream political process caused by what people say as a pointless exercise that changes nothing. Ken Livingstone once said ‘if voting ever changed anything, they’d abolish it.’
• Increasingly alternative way for people (especially young people) to participate in Politics – E-petitions, direct action, PGs etc. Petition to ban Donald trump – 586,000 signatures and debated in Parliament in January 2016. Occupy London Stock Exchange in 2011 is another example of alternative participation through direct action.
• More interest in single issue politics – Scottish independence, Environmentalism, Brexit etc. Whilst turnout has been decreasing during general elections, voters have been become more impassioned about single issues which are more high profile.

Question 13

3

Evaluate the view that the publication of opinion polls should be banned in the run up to elections - YES

Answer 13

• Opinion polls may influence the way people vote based on nothing but the popularity of a party amongst other voters. In an informed and advanced modern democracy, people should be making decisions based on the issues, not simply ‘band-wagoning’ on to a party which is doing well in the polls.
• Opinion Polls have been proved wrong on countless occasions, and may mislead the public, making them change their vote based on inaccurate information. Some of the polls on 7 June 2017 (one day before the election) delivered Tory leads of seven points, 10 points, 12 points and 13 points. Turned out to be a 2-point lead! The last two polls before the Brexit referendum showed Britain remaining by 55% to 45% and 58% to 42%. This may have led to Remain voters staying at home and Brexit supporters making sure they voted.
• Arguably, Politicians should not be slaves to ever-changing public opinion as expressed in the polls. Politicians should campaign as conviction politicians, making policy as a result of detailed research and studies, not the whim of the less-informed, often emotive rather than rational, electorate. Miliband’s widely mocked ‘Ed Stone’ was the consequence of Labour polling badly on immigration.

Question 14

4

Evaluate the view that the publication of opinion polls should be banned in the run up to elections - NO

Answer 14

• It would impinge the principle of freedom of expression. Banning something means restricting the public’s access to information and stifling debate. Shouldn’t the public have a right to see if a party is doing badly.
• Polls often get it close to exactly right, and polling is an evolving science, showing increasingly sophisticated and accurate results. Survation accurately predicted the result of the 2017 general election, calling a hung parliament, 2% lead for the Conservatives and the likely outcome of a deal with the DUP!
• Polls also help politicians gauge the most important issues for the public and form their policy positions on those issues. Lord Ashcroft’s investment in individual 1,000-strong polls in marginal constituencies to help the Conservatives shape their message is another example of polls helping to shape a campaign (2015)
• Polls can help smaller parties gain recognition in the UK’s two-party system dominated by Labour and the Conservatives. The Greens used polls showing them with strong support very effectively in their successful campaign to be included in the planned televised debates for the 2015 election.

Question 15

4

Age

Answer 15

• It will be seen that the most important factor is the age of the voter. There is an undeniable trend between older age and being more likely to vote for the Conservative party, and younger voters being more likely to vote for the Labour Party.
• In 2017, 66% of 18-19 year olds voted Labour, whereas 69% of 70+ year olds voted for the Conservative party. This also favours the Conservative party, as the UK has an ageing population and lower participation in elections in younger people (such as 18 year olds).
• The 65+ age bracket shows high turnout figures in all elections, with 78% in 2015, 71% in 2017 and 74% in 2019 compared to just 47% for 18-24 year olds in 2019. This is sometimes referred to as the grey vote, and is significant because it give a big advantage to the Conservatives and (previously) UKIP, who are most supported by the elderly.
• Moreover, another example as to how much of an influence age is on voting behaviour, is the Brexit referendum. It was seen that 73% of 18-24 year olds, voted remain, whilst 66% of 65+ year olds, voted leave. Overall, age is the most significant factor.

Question 16

2

Gender

Answer 16

• Gender has in the past been seen to have some impact on voting behaviour. Explain the significance: However, more up to date studies and information post-elections have revealed this to be quite minimal for the most part. For example, a Yougov survey of 52,000 adults following the general election, 43% of females voted Labour, and 43% voted Conservative. For men, it was 39% vs. 43%.
• This is a very small difference and insignificant in determining voter intentions. Over 23 years between 1992 and 2017, there has been almost no significant difference with how men and women vote. Even when the Prime Minister is female, as in 1983, 1987 and 2017, when men were almost equally as likely to vote for the woman as women were. Link back to age: Therefore age is clearly more relevant.

Question 17

6

Class

Answer 17

• Traditionally in UK politics, class was the defining factor determining how someone would vote, due to the strong class system within society.
• During the 1960s, possible as many as 80% of people voted on class lines. Defined by AB Upper Middle Class) C1 (Middle class), C2 (skilled working class) and DE (working class). Explain the significance: The way one voted was part of their class identity and the parties established strong links in communities defined on class lines, i.e. working class communities in the East End of London.
• However, in recent years, the UK has seen a progressive period of class dealignment. A trend in which progressively fewer people consider themselves to be a member of particular social class, and so class has a decreasing impact on their voting behaviour. For example, in the past AB voters at the higher end of the social class classification would be more liable to vote Conservative, with 78% doing so in 1964.
• In recent times this has declined dramatically, with only 40% of AB voters voting Conservative in 2010, with only small increases in 2015, 2017 and 2019. This may be due to the advent of New Labour under Tony Blair, a more centrist middle-ground vision of Labour values, as well as the growth in strength of the centrist Liberal Democrats from the 1980s onwards.
• However, class cannot be entirely written off as a factor influencing voting behaviour, as evidenced by continued working class support for the Labour party. Even centrist New Labour in 1997 received 59% of working class DE voter support, and in 2017 59% backed Corbyn.
• However the 2019 undermined this significantly, with only 39% of DE voters voting Labour, the first time more voted Conservative than Labour. Link back to age: Although significant, the link is still not as clear as it is with age due to class dealignment, and the fact that young people do not define themselves in such terms.

Question 18

4

Valence issues

Answer 18

• Another significant factor would be rational choice voting, i.e. when floating voters aren’t ideologically committed to one party decide their vote on the issues, either specific ones, or valence issues. A swing voter may be swung by what political analyst Peter Kellner calls valence issues, judging parties and politicians not on the specific issues but on their character.
• Governing competence of the main parties and their leaders is a key valence issue, and voters may choose to judge a party based on its record in government or its reputation on an issue. Economic competence was a major factor in the 1979 election, as Thatcher and the Conservatives were seen as more economically competent than Labour under James Callaghan.
• Floating voters may choose to vote instrumentally or expressively, either voting for parties promising policies which would directly benefit them, or voting for the party they feel would benefit society best as a whole.
• Alternatively, a parties’ leader may also swing a floating voter. Tony Blair’s youth, decisiveness and charisma in 1997 is often cited as the reason for the 8.8% swing to Labour and massive landslide. Link back to age: However, a voter’s idea of what may constitute a key instrumental issue for them, as well as their own view of valence, may be significantly influenced by their age, as younger voters are going to care more about education policy than pension policy for example.

Question 19

3

Region

Answer 19

• Looking at parties’ regional support can be helpful in explaining voting behaviour. Explain significance: The Conservatives are dominant in the South East and West, and slightly dominant in the Midlands. Labour leads in the north of England but this is not a decisive lead, with the 2019 election revealing how weak their grip had become, with the breaking of the “Red Wall” and a large number of seats that had always been Labour going to the Conservatives.
• Scotland has moved from being a Labour stronghold before 2010, has been largely dominated by the SNP, who took 48 of the 59 seats in 2019. Until 2015 Wales was not dominated by any one party, but there was a genuine competition between four parties there. However, Labour still dominates after 2017.
• Liberal Democrats have little support outside London and the south of England. Link back to age: Although region is helpful with determining party dominance in certain areas, it is less helpful than age in determining an individuals’ voting intention, as individuals may not vote solely based on where they live.

Question 20

Ethnicity

Answer 20

• It has it normally been seen that members of an ethnic minority are more likely to vote for Labour. At the 2019 general election, Labour had a massive 44 point lead over the Conservatives for BME voters, with 64% of the BME vote going for Corbyn in 2017. Link back to age:
• However, There is a link between ethnicity and economic factors. This community is, overall, poorer than the white community and therefore arguably is more likely to have left-wing voter preferences. In other words, the factor at work is not race, but class and income. This suggests that as a factor in itself, age is more significant than ethnicity.

Question 21

3

Evaluate the extent to which Economic Policy is the most important factor influencing floating voters - Economic Policy

Answer 21

• Economic Policy is arguably by far the most important factor which could influence the party preference of floating voters, as it informs the electorate’s view of a party, it’s leader, and gives the media something to comment on.
• The old saying in Politics that voters vote based on the thickness of their wallets can be seen to be factually accurate, as in 2015, Yougov found that the number one issue amongst the electorate was the state of the British economy, above contentious issues such as Healthcare and immigration. Politicians centre their whole campaigns around the state of the economy, criticising other parties’ economic positions, whilst extolling their own economic prowess.
• Theresa May criticised Jeremy Corbyn’s manifesto is ‘uncosted’ and famously made the argument that Labour was paying for it’s policies with a ‘magic money tree.’ This desire to appear economically competent has been an election technique since 1979, when the Tories famously declared ‘Labour isn’t working’ and when C2 voters famously split evenly between Labour and Conservative at 41%. It will be seen that all other factors are influenced by the predominance of economic policy.

Question 22

2

Valence Issues

Answer 22

• Valence issues could be described as a situation when most of the electorate hold similar views on an issue, they may decide to vote for one party or another based on how well they think the party and/or it’s leader will manage that particular issue, as well as on a judgement of how well the party managed it in the past. This could be particularly influenced by the public’s view of the party’s leader. These are known as valence issues. Governing competence is a key aspect of voter behaviour, not looking at a particular policy area, instead focusing on which party voters believe will govern the country best.
• Link back to economic policy: A key part of valence is how well the party will run the British economy, and therefore many parties make the economy a central part of their campaigns. David Cameron did this will his constant refrain that the Conservatives had a ‘long term economic plan’ back in 2015, not only giving him a personal image of economically credible, but adding to the valence of the Tories as well.

Question 23

2

Rational Choice Voting (Instrumental and Expressive voting):

Answer 23

• It could be argued that to ascribe voter choice to one particular policy area is far too simplistic, as voters tend to vote broadly on altruistic (expressive) or instrumental lines. An altruistic (or expressive) voter votes for the party they believe will do best for the entire country as a whole, not necessarily the party which best serves their own self-interests.
• An instrumental voter votes for the party which is going to best answer their self-interest. Expressive voting played out in 2017, when Labour were ahead by 2% amongst C1 voters (43% to 41%). This is a class traditionally dominated by the Conservatives and may be evidence of expressive voting.
• Link back to economic policy: Despite this, the problematic aspect of this argument is that often, the way people judge what is best for themselves or best for the country will be based on economic policy, as evidenced by the arguments above.

Question 24

3

Issue voting (linked to age):

Answer 24

• Age is a highly significant factor in determining how people will vote in general elections, as economic policy may be far less important for younger voters than older voters. This is due to the fact that younger voters tend to be in education, paying less tax, and have no dependants, i.e. children.
• Younger people are far more likely to focus on social justice and equality rather than tax or pensions policy. 2019 perhaps was the election that has been most decided by issue voting, with the matter of who was better equipped to deal with Brexit dominating the way people voted – 73% of leave voters voted for the Conservative party.
• Link back to economic policy: The clear link here is the older you get, the more concerned you become with economic policy, as you pay more tax, have a salary and will be increasingly interested in their pension policy.

Question 25

# 3 Tactical voting:

Answer 25

- The tough reality of the FPTP electoral system used in UK general elections means that large numbers of swing voters are forced to vote for one of the two main parties in order to keep the other one out, rather than be able to vote for the smaller third party they like the most. - The June 2017 election vote was branded the “hold your nose” election after an estimated 6.5 million people made tactical decisions out of the 27 million votes. This arguably has almost nothing to do with economic policy, instead it is to do with the harsh reality of the FPTP electoral system. - Link back to economic policy: A link to economic policy that could be made is the fact that many of those tactical voters may have chosen a party most aligned with their preferred economic vision, as the economy is always a top issue at election time, as evidenced in 2015, when Yougov found it the number 1 issue.

Question 26

# 3 Party Leaders:

Answer 26

- Charismatic, decisive and popular leaders support the party in its widest sense, leaders with charisma attract all important swing voters to vote for the party, for example Blair appealing beyond the traditional Labour base in 1997 and 2001 and leaders of minor parties attracting major media attention such as Nigel Farage in 2015. - Building on this, the media focuses on eye-catching stories based on personality rather than ideas such as economic policy. Indeed, the personality espouses the ideas, becoming the ‘brand image’ and figurehead of the political party. Leaders’ performances under the spotlight (for example at Prime Minister’s questions or at election debates) matters in securing electoral success. Leaders need to perform effectively to carry the authority and give the impression that they can manage their own party and the country. In 2010, only 6 per cent of people said having Mr Miliband as Labour leader made them more likely to support the party, while 40 per cent said it made them less likely to do so and this shows that leadership is hugely important when it comes to attracting voters. - Link back to economic policy: Leaders, no matter how popular, can be bought down by poor public perception of their economic policy, or by specific unpopular economic proposals. A prime example of this would be James Callaghan in 1979, who was more liked than Thatcher, but was perceived as a Prime Minister who had badly mismanaged the British economy. In 2017, May became hamstrung by the highly unpopular social care policy which became known as the dementia tax.

Question 27

# 3 Press:

Answer 27

- The media in Britain arguably plays are more significant role in swinging floating voters towards a party than economic policy, as it the primary way in which voters learn about the parties fighting for their votes. The Sun, a newspaper with a national circulation of nearly 2 million, has supported the party which achieved a majority in parliament in every election between 1979 and 2015, with the exception of 2010, when the Conservatives were the largest party, but didn’t receive a majority. - The print media will focus on personality politics, especially the leaders of the two main parties, far more than economic policy. Personal gaffs and scandals, such as bigot-gate in 2010 and May’s ‘fields of wheat’ comments in 2017 dominate the coverage in the newspapers and the print media far more than economic policy, whilst Johnson was largely able to get the press on side. Social media is now increasingly important at election time, as shown by the rise in Labour activism on twitter and Facebook, especially by Momentum, the left-wing Corbyn supporting party faction. - Link back to economic policy: Despite this supposed dominance, and although the media might be the most visual influencing factor on elections, it could be argued that it’s influence is negligible compared to economic policy, as the 1997 general election shows.  Advocates of the view that The Sun backing Blair swung the election for him has been disproved by polling expert Professor John Curtice, who has found that “the pattern of vote switching during the 1997 campaign amongst readers of The Sun or any other ex-Tory newspaper proved to be much like that of those who did not read a newspaper at all”. Most of the 13.5% swing from Labour to the Conservatives (12.5%) before the 2010 election happened before the Sun announced its change of support to the Conservatives. Curtice puts this down to Cameron’s pledge to cut the deficit and balance the books – i.e. economic policy.

Question 27

# 3 Evaluate the view that, for the general public, the media is more significant than policy statements and manifestoes from political parties. - Media is more significant

Answer 27

- The media can highlight the strengths/weaknesses of leaders at election time. This was particularly evident during the 2015 election, when traditional media in particular highlighted the perceived personality weaknesses of Ed Miliband. Also true of 2017, when Theresa May mishandled her U-turn on social care, when she seemed to trying to cover it up – ‘nothing has changed!’ - Media is the way in which party manifestos and policies get out to the electorate – and they determine the public response to them. One poll in the run up to the general election in 2017 found that 67% don’t read manifestos, they find out about policies in the press. Heavy criticism in the press has made leaders change their policies such as Philip Hammond and his U-turn on rising tax levels for the self-employed in September 2018. - Huge influence of biased/politicised print media and the rise in social media means parties increasingly fighting for media dominance. The public appeared to be swayed by a largely anti-EU press in the run up to the EU referendum. The newspapers with the largest readership are the Conservative leading Sun and Daily Mail. Between 1979 and 2015, the only election where the party backed the Sun has not won was 2010.

Question 28

# 3 Evaluate the view that, for the general public, the media is more significant than policy statements and manifestoes from political parties - Manifesto is more significant

Answer 28

- Even popular leaders can be bought down by poor policy, leading to less liked leaders being elected. Thatcher was personally less well-liked than James Callaghan in 1979, known mainly for her time as Health Secretary under Ted Heath, when she was known as the ‘milk snatcher’ for removing funding for free school milk, and yet she still won a majority of 43 seats in 1979. May was polling higher personally than Corbyn in 2017, but the social care “dementia tax” policy also crippled her campaign. - The public tend to vote on issues (issue voting) and what the parties will/won’t do to improve their lives (instrumental voting). This could be seen in the 2019 election, where the issue of Brexit made far more of an impact than any media coverage. Media coverage of the two parties was quite similar, it was the stance on Brexit by Labour and Conservatives that changed. - The media is clearly becoming less influential due to the fragmentation of the media landscape. Social media is hugely dominated by Labour supporters and the decline in the print media shows that the Conservative dominated papers are losing influence. This polarisation actually cancels out the influence of the press as it essentially acts as an echo chamber as the general public tend to choose media sources which reflect and endorse their views

Question 28

# 3 Evaluate the extent to which Party leaders are the crucial factor in whether or not a political party is successful - Reasons why the party leader is the most important factor:

Answer 28

- Charismatic, decisive and popular leaders support the party in its widest sense, Leaders with charisma attract wavering voters to vote for the party, for example Blair appealing beyond the traditional Labour base and leaders of minor parties, such as Farage (with his everyman appeal) and Sturgeon (liberal and patriotic), have made a significant difference to their parties’ electoral appeal, therefore these types of leaders work effectively in offering an attractive brand to voters and they can have a great impact, this type of brand appeal is likely to continue. Charisma makes it easier to petition for funds and donations to contest elections and achieve success, therefore this type of leader is far more effective in ensuring that their party is successful, people respond to them and this type of personality is likely to continue to make an impact as political leadership is about personality. An example of this could be Blair in 1997, whose charisma and clear vision for the country was hugely important, contrasted with the grey and unexciting John Major. - The media finds it easier to connect with personality rather than ideas. Indeed, the personality espouses the ideas, becoming the ‘brand image’ and figurehead of the political party, with attention focused on their behaviour, therefore the media supports the view that party leaders are crucial; leaders with a strong brand play better in the media and gain more positive press and therefore appear more favourable to the electorate, whereas weaker leaders are often mocked by the press and this damages their credibility with the public. Thatcher’s decisiveness and image as ‘the Iron Lady’ helped her in the run up to the 1983 election. Much was made of Corbyn’s honesty and sincerity in the run up to the election in 2017. Ed Miliband was mocked for the way he ate a sandwich in The Sun Newspaper in 2015, nothing to do with policy. Johnson certainly was aware of this, playing into their love of soundbites with the promise to “get Brexit done”. - Leaders’ performances under the spotlight (for example at Prime Minister’s questions or at election debates) matters in securing electoral success. Leaders need to perform effectively to carry the authority and give the impression that they can manage their own party and the country, thus these types of party leaders can have a crucial impact and weak leaders struggle with division, for example John Major was a very effective ‘soap box’ campaigner, speaking to people on the streets. ‘Cleggmania’ began after Nick Clegg’s strong performances in the leaders debates at the general election in 2010, whilst Ed Miliband came across as nerdy and lacking authority in his election interview with Jeremy Paxman in 2015, stuttering over the phrase “H…h..hell yes I’m t…t..tough enough”. Johnson did a good job of just getting enough of the spotlight to not risk too many gaffes, whilst not appearing to be dodging the media.

Question 29

# 3 Evaluate the extent to which Party leaders are the crucial factor in whether or not a political party is successful - Reasons why the party leader is NOT the most important factor:

Answer 29

- Party Unity is a crucial factor for the success of a party, as a party which appears disunited is not going to suggest it would make an effective governing party. Johnson had done a good job of unifying his party around him in the build up to the 2019 election, removing the Conservative whip from some of the more moderate less pro-Brexit MPs. A leader is only as good as the talent and support around them in their political party, for example the role of Mandelson, Brown and Campbell for Blair and Osborne for Cameron, therefore depth and breadth in key appointments and support staff ensures that a clear message is given in the media and ensures party success, it shows that success is a more complicated issue than simply having a popular, strong leader. - A range of other issues are more important than the leader, such as economic prosperity and worldwide events beyond the borders of the UK, for example the impact of the Iraq War and the financial crash on Labour’s success in 2005 and 2010, the outcome of the Scottish referendum for the SNP in 201, consequently these events are beyond the control of party leaders and often come down to factors beyond their control, so it is clear that other factors can influence success and that leadership alone is not the key factor. Domestic events outside of the leaders control can damage a party’s popularity, such as the Grenfell Tower fire in June 2017 severely damaged Theresa May’s popularity. - The role of the media is far more important than the party leaders themselves. How the media targets the party and its ideas is vital and leaders often pander to the media and change their views to please the media, as evidenced by David Cameron’s close ties with the Murdochs and former tabloid News of the World Editor Rebekah Brooks, which came to light during the Levison inquiry into press standards in 2013. therefore, it is not just the sheer personality of a leader that dictates success, it is that coupled with the backing of media corporations that helps parties to be successful and this outlet will continue to be influential. Does the party dominate on social media? Conservatives spent 100m on Facebook alone during GE2015, whilst Labour (Momentum especially) reached millions with its viral videos during GE2017. Traditional Media – the party-political leanings of the major newspapers mean they can significantly influence the public’s views of a party. In 2017 the Daily Mail had a circulation of 1,514,000 and 74% of its readers voted for the Conservatives, the Mail’s desired party of government. Miliband mocked in the press in 2015.

Question 29

# 4 Evaluate the extent to which the dominance of the two main parties in the UK political system is in decline - IT IS

Answer 29

- Partisan dealignment: There is a long-term trend of voters turning away from the two main parties. In 1974, 79% voted for the two main parties, whilst in 2010, just 67.6 per cent of all voters opted for Labour or the Tories. - Third party support has increased leading to multi-party politics in the UK. Growth in UKIP support (3.8 million votes in 2015 – 12.6% of the votes), Greens and LIB Dems in 2010s. SNP winning 56 seats in 2015 and then 48 in 2019 - Voters see little difference between the Conservatives and Labour –they captured the middle ground (eg New Labour and Conservatives in 2000s under Blair and Cameron.   - Neither of the two main parties won enough seats to form a majority government in 2010 and so a coalition between the Conservatives and Lib Dems occurred, whilst the Conservatives relied on the DUP from 2017-2019

Question 30

# 4 Evaluate the extent to which the dominance of the two main parties in the UK political system is in decline - IT ISN'T

Answer 30

- 2017 & 2019 General Elections: The percentage of voters who supported either Labour or Conservative was around 82%. Partisan Dealignment is (potentially temporarily) over. Theresa May might have failed to win a majority, but she got the Tories' highest share of the vote since 1983. Labour, meanwhile, did better under Jeremy Corbyn than it had done since 2001. These elections represented a return to combined voting for both parties not seen since 1970. - This support does not seem as entrenched as for the main parties – support for UKIP and the Lib Dems have collapsed. While the Liberal Democrats won an extra three seats in 2017, their share of vote actually declined by 0.5 per cent. The SNP lost 21 seats and their vote share fell 13.1% in the 2017. The Greens were down by 2.5% and, most calamitous of all, UKIP has shed nearly 3.3 of its 3.8 million 2015 election votes. - The two main parties have clear ideological differences in 2017. They no longer operate in the centre ground. Corbyn and his beliefs regarding nuclear weapons. Privatisation v. nationalisation etc in the water/rail sectors. (Look at your notes from Political Parties) - Young people have begun to vote in large numbers: turnout amongst 18-24 yr olds was 54%, up from 43% in 2015. This was bound to benefit the Labour party, as 69% of 18-24 year olds voted Labour in 2017

Question 31

# 4 Evaluate the extent to which general elections in the UK are lost by the government rather than won by the opposition - Lost by the Government (mistakes by them)

Answer 31

- Weak leadership & PM – If a Prime minister is seen to have lost power at the national level, or lost control of their own government, it could have a vital impact on the wider valence of the party of government. A good example of this would be John Major’s time as Prime Minister from 92-97, who was severely weakened by his failure to deal with Tory party’s image of sleaze, including cash for questions and numerous sex scandals. - Poor record in government - John Major in 1997 was plagued by a poor record in government – he was PM when Britain crashed out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1994, which saw the pound severely lose value. Gordon Brown’s poor record in government from 2008-2010, including the poor press coverage of his handling of the banking crisis, and his failure to call an election in 2008. - Poor campaign by govt. party – Theresa May went into the 2017 election with a huge poll lead, with many pundits and pollsters predicting a 100-seat majority. It can be argued that her dismal campaign, including her failure to deal with the U-turn on social care due to the unpopular dementia tax, as well as her decision not to take part in the TV debates, undermined her clear advantage. - Disunited govt. party – By the time of the 1997 general election, the Conservative party was extremely divided over the issue of European Integration. Major’s own cabinet was severely divided over the issue, and he faced a leadership election based on his attitude towards Europe. The Brownite vs. Blairite split also damaged the image of the Labour party in the general election of 2005, with his Blair’s majority being slashed to 66 from 100+.

Question 32

# 4 Evaluate the extent to which general elections in the UK are lost by the government rather than won by the opposition - Won by opposition

Answer 32

- Positive leadership qualities by leader of opposition party - It wasn’t the absence of charisma from Major that lost him the election in 1997, instead it was Blair’s charisma, strong leadership qualities, and strong oratorical skills which arguably won the election for Labour in 1997. - Positive policy ideas – Thatcher in 1979 was not perceived anywhere near as positively as PM James Callaghan, but the Conservative party’s policies on the economy, which was doing very poorly during the ‘winter of discontent’ in 1978, arguably won her the election, showing that the appeal of the opposition could be more important than the record of the govt. itself. - Excellent campaign & use of media by Opposition – The 2017 general election cannot be seen just as a Conservative failure but as a success for the Labour party, with Jeremy Corbyn proving himself to be a highly effective and charismatic campaigner, with highly popular policies and a big online following. Thatcher and Blair also had the support of the print media in 1979 and 1997 consecutively. - United Opposition party – Along with the disunity of the Conservative party in 1997, the Labour party was united behind Blair’s leadership, with him having finished the long process beginning with the leadership of Neil Kinnock to move the Labour party to the centre ground.