Behavioral Science - Epidemiology / Biostatistics Flashcards

1
Q

Cross-sectional study

  • Study Type
  • Design
  • Measures/Example
A
  • Study Type
    • Observational
  • Design
    • Collects data from a group of people to assess frequency of disease (and related risk factors) at a particular point in time.
    • Asks, “What is happening?””
  • Measures/Example
    • Disease prevalence.
    • Can show risk factor association with disease, but does not establish causality.
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
2
Q

Case-control study

  • Study Type
  • Design
  • Measures/Example
A
  • Study Type
    • Observational and retrospective
  • Design
    • Compares a group of people with disease to a group without disease.
    • Looks for prior exposure or risk factor.
    • Asks, “What happened?”
  • Measures/Examples
    • Odds ratio (OR).
    • “Patients with COPD had higher odds of a history of smoking than those without COPD had.”
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
3
Q

Cohort study

  • Study Type
  • Design
  • Measures/Example
A
  • Study Type
    • Observational and prospective or retrospective
  • Design
    • Compares a group with a given exposure or risk factor to a group without such exposure.
    • Looks to see if exposure increased the likelihood of disease.
    • Can be prospective (asks, “Who will develop disease?”) or retrospective (asks, “Who developed the disease [exposed vs. nonexposed]?”).
  • Measures/Example
    • Relative risk (RR).
    • “Smokers had a higher risk of developing COPD than nonsmokers had.”
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
4
Q

Twin concordance study

  • Design
  • Measures/Example
A
  • Design
    • Compares the frequency with which both monozygotic twins or both dizygotic twins develop same disease.
  • Measures/Example
    • Measures heritability and influence of environmental factors (“nature vs. nurture”).
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
5
Q

Adoption study

  • Design
  • Measures/Example
A
  • Design
    • Compares siblings raised by biological vs. adoptive parents.
  • Measures/Example
    • Measures heritability and influence of environmental factors.
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
6
Q

Clinical trial

A
  • Experimental study involving humans.
  • Compares therapeutic benefits of 2 or more treatments, or of treatment and placebo.
  • Study quality improves when study is randomized, controlled, and double-blinded (i.e., neither patient nor doctor knows whether the patient is in the treatment or control group).
  • Triple-blind refers to the additional blinding of the researchers analyzing the data.
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
7
Q

Drug Trials: Phase I

  • Typical Study Sample
  • Purpose
A
  • Typical Study Sample
    • Small number of healthy volunteers.
  • Purpose
    • “Is it safe?”
    • Assesses safety, toxicity, and pharmacokinetics.
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
8
Q

Drug Trials: Phase II

  • Typical Study Sample
  • Purpose
A
  • Typical Study Sample
    • Small number of patients with disease of interest.
  • Purpose
    • “Does it work?”
    • Assesses treatment efficacy, optimal dosing, and adverse effects.
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
9
Q

Drug Trials: Phase III

  • Typical Study Sample
  • Purpose
A
  • Typical Study Sample
    • Large number of patients randomly assigned either to the treatment under investigation or to the best available treatment (or placebo).
  • Purpose
    • “Is it as good or better?”
    • Compares the new treatment to the current standard of care.
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
10
Q

Drug Trials: Phase IV

  • Typical Study Sample
  • Purpose
A
  • Typical Study Sample
    • Postmarketing surveillance trial of patients after approval.
  • Purpose
    • “Can it stay?”
    • Detects rare or long-term adverse effects.
    • Can result in a drug being withdrawn from market.
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
11
Q

Evaluation of diagnostic tests

A
  • Uses 2 × 2 table comparing test results with the actual presence of disease.
    • TP = true positive
    • FP = false positive
    • TN = true negative
    • FN = false negative
  • Sensitivity and specificity are fixed properties of a test (vs. PPV and NPV).
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
12
Q

Sensitivity (true-positive rate)

  • Definition
  • Equations
A
  • Definition
    • Proportion of all people with disease who test positive, or the probability that a test detects disease when disease is present.
    • Value approaching 100% is desirable for ruling out disease and indicates a low false-negative rate.
    • High sensitivity test used for screening in diseases with low prevalence.
  • Equations
    • = TP / (TP + FN)
    • = 1 – false-negative rate
    • If sensitivity is 100%
      • TP / (TP + FN) = 1
      • FN = 0
      • All negatives must be TNs
  • SN-N-OUT = highly SeNsitive test, when Negative, rules OUT disease
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
13
Q

Specificity (true-negative rate)

  • Definition
  • Equations
A
  • Definition
    • Proportion of all people without disease who test negative, or the probability that a test indicates non-disease when disease is absent.
    • Value approaching 100% is desirable for ruling in disease and indicates a low false-positive rate.
    • High specificity test used for confirmation after a positive screening test.
  • Equations
    • = TN / (TN + FP)
    • = 1 – false-positive rate
    • If specificity is 100%
      • TN / (TN + FP) = 1
      • FP = 0
      • All positives must be TPs
  • SP-P-IN = highly SPecific test, when Positive, rules IN disease
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
14
Q

Positive predictive value (PPV)

  • Definition
  • Equation
A
  • Definition
    • Proportion of positive test results that are true positive.
    • Probability that person actually has the disease given a positive test result.
    • PPV varies directly with prevalence or pretest probability
      • High pretest probability –>Ž high PPV
  • Equation
    • = TP / (TP + FP)
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
15
Q

Negative predictive value (NPV) (51)

A
  • Definition
    • Proportion of negative test results that are true negative.
    • Probability that person actually is disease free given a negative test result.
    • NPV varies inversely with prevalence or pretest probability
      • High pretest probability –>Ž low NPV
  • Equation
    • = TN / (FN + TN)
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
16
Q

Incidence vs. prevalence

  • Equations
  • Comparison
A
  • Equations
    • Incidence rate = # of new cases in a specified time period / Population at risk during same time period
      • Incidence looks at new cases (incidents).
    • Prevalence = # of existing cases / Population at risk
      • Prevalence looks at all current cases.
  • Comparison
    • Prevalence ≈ incidence rate × average disease duration.
    • Prevalence > incidence for chronic diseases (e.g., diabetes).
    • Incidence and prevalence for common cold are very similar since disease duration is short.
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
17
Q

Odds ratio (OR)

  • Definition
  • Equations
A
  • Definition
    • Typically used in case-control studies.
    • Odds that the group with the disease (cases) was exposed to a risk factor (a/c) divided by the odds that the group without the disease (controls) was exposed (b/d).
  • Equations
    • OR = (a/c) / (b/d) = ad / bc
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
18
Q

Relative risk (RR)

  • Definition
  • Equations
A
  • Definition
    • Typically used in cohort studies.
    • Risk of developing disease in the exposed group divided by risk in the unexposed group
    • e.g., if 21% of smokers develop lung cancer vs. 1% of nonsmokers, RR = 21/1 = 21
    • If prevalence is low, RR ≈ OR.
  • Equations
    • RR = [a / (a+b)] / [c / (c+d)]
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
19
Q

Relative risk reduction (RRR)

  • Definition
  • Equations
A
  • Definition
    • The proportion of risk reduction attributable to the intervention as compared to a control.
    • e.g., if 2% of patients who receive a flu shot develop flu, while 8% of unvaccinated patients develop the flu, then RR = 2/8 = 0.25, and RRR = 1 – RR = 0.75
  • Equations
    • RRR = 1 – RR
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
20
Q

Attributable risk (AR)

  • Definition
  • Equations
A
  • Definition
    • The difference in risk between exposed and unexposed groups, or the proportion of disease occurrences that are attributable to the exposure
    • e.g., if risk of lung cancer in smokers is 21% and risk in nonsmokers is 1%, then 20% (or .20) of the 21% risk of lung cancer in smokers is attributable to smoking.
  • Equations
    • AR = [a / (a+b)] - [c / (c+d)]
How well did you know this?
1
Not at all
2
3
4
5
Perfectly
21
Q

Absolute risk reduction (ARR)

  • Definition
  • Equations
A
  • Definition
    • The difference in risk (not the proportion) attributable to the intervention as compared to a control
    • e.g., if 8% of people who receive a placebo vaccine develop flu vs. 2% of people who receive a flu vaccine, then ARR = 8% - 2% = 6% = .06.
  • Equations
    • ARR = [c / (c+d)] - [a / (a+b)]
22
Q

Number needed to treat

  • Definition
  • Equation
A
  • Definition
    • Number of patients who need to be treated for 1 patient to benefit.
  • Equation
    • NNT = 1/ARR.
23
Q

Number needed to harm

  • Definition
  • Equation
A
  • Definition
    • Number of patients who need to be exposed to a risk factor for 1 patient to be harmed.
  • Equation
    • NNH = 1/AR.
24
Q

Precision

A
  • The consistency and reproducibility of a test (reliability).
  • The absence of random variation in a test.
  • Random error—reduces precision in a test.
  • Increased precision –> decreased standard deviation.
25
Accuracy
* The trueness of test measurements (validity). * The absence of systematic error or bias in a test. * Systematic error—reduces accuracy in a test.
26
Selection bias * Definition * Examples * Berkson bias * Loss to follow-up * Healthy worker and volunteer biases * Strategies to reduce bias
* Definition * Nonrandom assignment to participate in a study group. * Most commonly a sampling bias. * Examples * Berkson bias * A study looking only at inpatients * Loss to follow-up * Studying a disease with early mortality * Healthy worker and volunteer biases * Study populations are healthier than the general population * Strategies to reduce bias * Randomization * Ensure the choice of the right comparison/reference group
27
Recall bias * Definition * Example * Strategy to reduce bias
* Definition * Awareness of disorder alters recall by subjects * Common in retrospective studies. * Example * Patients with disease recall exposure after learning of similar cases * Strategy to reduce bias * Decrease time from exposure to follow-up
28
Measurement bias * Definition * Example * Strategy to reduce bias
* Definition * Information is gathered in a way that distorts it. * Example * Hawthorne effect — groups who know they’re being studied behave differently than they would otherwise * Strategy to reduce bias * Use of placebo control groups with blinding to reduce influence of participants and researchers on experimental procedures and interpretation of outcomes
29
Procedure bias * Definition * Example * Strategy to reduce bias
* Definition * Subjects in different groups are not treated the same. * Example * Patients in treatment group spend more time in highly specialized hospital units * Strategy to reduce bias * Use of placebo control groups with blinding to reduce influence of participants and researchers on experimental procedures and interpretation of outcomes
30
Observer-expectancy bias * Definition * Example * Strategy to reduce bias
* Definition * Researcher’s belief in the efficacy of a treatment changes the outcome of that treatment * aka Pygmalion effect; self-fulfilling prophecy * Example * If observer expects treatment group to show signs of recovery, then he is more likely to document positive outcomes * Strategy to reduce bias * Use of placebo control groups with blinding to reduce influence of participants and researchers on experimental procedures and interpretation of outcomes
31
Confounding bias * Definition * Example * Strategies to reduce bias
* Definition * When a factor is related to both the exposure and outcome, but not on the causal pathway * Factor distorts or confuses effect of exposure on outcome * Example * Pulmonary disease is more common in coal workers than the general population * However, people who work in coal mines also smoke more frequently than the general population * Strategies to reduce bias * Multiple/repeated studies * Crossover studies (subjects act as their own controls) * Matching (patients with similar characteristics in both treatment and control groups)
32
Lead-time bias * Definition * Example * Strategy to reduce bias
* Definition * Early detection is confused with increased survival * Seen with improved screening techniques. * Example * Early detection makes it seem as though survival has increased, but the natural history of the disease has not changed * Strategy to reduce bias * Measure “back-end” survival (adjust survival according to the severity of disease at the time of diagnosis)
33
Measures of central tendency * Mean * Median * Mode
* Mean = (sum of values)/(total number of values). * Median = middle value of a list of data sorted from least to greatest. * If there is an even number of values, the median will be the average of the middle two values. * Mode = most common value.
34
Measures of dispersion * Standard deviation * Standard error of the mean
* Standard deviation = how much variability exists from the mean in a set of values. * Standard error of the mean = an estimation of how much variability exists between the sample mean and the true population mean. * σ = SD, n = sample size * SEM = σ / sqrt(n) * SEM decreases as n increases
35
Normal distribution
* Gaussian, also called bell-shaped. * Mean = median = mode.
36
Bimodal distribution
* Suggests two different populations * e.g., metabolic polymorphism such as fast vs. slow acetylators; suicide rate by age
37
Positive skew
* Typically, mean \> median \> mode. * Asymmetry with longer tail on right.
38
Negative skew
* Typically, mean \< median \< mode. * Asymmetry with longer tail on left.
39
Null Hypothesis (H0)
* Hypothesis of no difference * e.g., there is no association between the disease and the risk factor in the population
40
Alternative Hypothesis (H1)
* Hypothesis of some difference * e.g., there is some association between the disease and the risk factor in the population
41
Table: Power, Type 1 Error, Type 2 Error, and Correct
42
Correct result
* Stating that there is an effect or difference when one exists * Null hypothesis rejected in favor of alternative hypothesis * Stating that there is not an effect or difference when none exists * Null hypothesis not rejected
43
Type I error (α) * Definition * α & p
* Definition * Also known as false-positive error * Stating that there is an effect or difference when none exists * Null hypothesis incorrectly rejected in favor of alternative hypothesis * **_α_ = you s**_a_**w a difference that did not exist (e.g., convicting an innocent man).** * α & p * α is the probability of making a type I error. * p is judged against a preset a level of significance (usually \< .05). * If p \< 0.05, then there is less than a 5% chance that the data will show something that is not really there.
44
Type II error (β) * Definition * β & power
* Definition * Also known as false-negative error. * Stating that there is not an effect or difference when one exists * Null hypothesis is not rejected when it is in fact false * **_β_ = you were **_b_**lind to a difference that did exist (e.g., setting a guilty man free).** * β & power * β is the probability of making a type II error. * β is related to statistical power (1 – β), which is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is false. * Increase power and decrease β by: * Increasing sample size * **There is power in numbers.** * Increasing expected effect size * Increasing precision of measurement
45
Meta-analysis
* Pools data and integrates results from several similar studies to reach an overall conclusion. * Increase statistical power. * Limited by quality of individual studies or bias in study selection.
46
Confidence interval * Definition * Equation * 95% & 99% CI * If the 95% CI for a mean difference between 2 variables includes 0 * If the 95% CI for odds ratio or relative risk includes 1 * If the CIs between 2 groups do not overlap * If the CIs between 2 groups overlap
* Definition * Range of values in which a specified probability of the means of repeated samples would be expected to fall. * Equation * CI = range from [mean – Z(SEM)] to [mean + Z(SEM)]. * 95% & 99% CI * For the 95% CI, Z = 1.96. * The 95% CI (corresponding to p = .05) is often used. * For the 99% CI, Z = 2.58. * If the 95% CI for a mean difference between 2 variables includes 0 * Then there is no significant difference and H0 is not rejected. * If the 95% CI for odds ratio or relative risk includes 1 * H0 is not rejected. * If the CIs between 2 groups do not overlap * Significant difference exists. * If the CIs between 2 groups overlap * Usually no significant difference exists.
47
t-test
* Checks differences between means of 2 groups. * **Tea is meant for 2** * Example: comparing the mean blood pressure between men and women.
48
ANOVA
* Checks differences between means of 3 or more groups. * **3 words: ANalysis Of VAriance** * Example: comparing the mean blood pressure between members of 3 different ethnic groups.
49
Chi-square (χ²)
* Checks difference between 2 or more percentages or proportions of categorical outcomes (not mean values). * **Pronounce Chi-tegorical** * Example: comparing the percentage of members of 3 different ethnic groups who have essential hypertension.
50
Pearson correlation coefficient (r) * Definition * Positive vs. negative r value * Coefficient of determination
* Definition * r is always between -1 and +1. * The closer the absolute value of r is to 1, the stronger the linear correlation between the 2 variables. * Positive vs. negative r value * Positive r value --\>Ž positive correlation. * Negative r valueŽ --\> negative correlation. * Coefficient of determination = r2 (value that is usually reported).
51
Disease Prevention * Primary * Secondary * Tertiary * Quaternary
* **_P_**rimary * **_P_**revent disease occurrence (e.g., HPV vaccination). * **_S_**econdary * **_S_**creening early for disease (e.g., Pap smear) * **_T_**ertiary * **_T_**reatment to reduce disability from disease (e.g., chemotherapy) * **Quaternary** * Identifying patients at risk of unneccessary treatment, protecting from the harm of new interventions
52
Medicare and Medicaid * Both * Medicare * Medicaid
* Both * Federal programs that originated from amendments to the Social Security Act. * Medicare * Available to patients ≥ 65 years old, \< 65 with certain disabilities, and those with end-stage renal disease. * **MedicarE is for Elderly** * Medicaid * Joint federal and state health assistance for people with very low income. * **MedicaiD is for Destitute**