S: 3.1 - 3.3

Question 1

3.1 overall

Answer 1

Global influence is contested in a number of different economic, environmental and political spheres.

How will superpowers exploit physical resources - look at the arctic

Question 2

Contested Arctic:

Answer 2

• One of few remaining wilderness locations, with biomes significant globally.
• However, there is growing pressure to exploit natural resources as well as open region up to commercial shipping and tourism
• Rising oil and gas prices make difficult extraction financially viable.
• Climate change is opening up shipping lanes (NW passage)
• Ownership of the arctic is contested, as superpowers attempt to exert control over it

Question 3

Gas prices + oil prices

Answer 3

Gas prices rising from 65p in march 2021, to 282p per therm in march 2022
Oil prices from 30 dollar in 2016, to 105 in 2022

Question 4

Why even get resources?

Answer 4

• Consumption and production both require resources
• Competition drives production which drives economic growth.
• Governments need economic growth to avoid social unrest

Question 5

Env impacts of getting impacts

Answer 5

• Pollution, habitat destruction, GHG emissions, land degradation
• This influences political legitimacy in local and domestic areas

Question 6

How do u get resources?

Answer 6

• Hard and soft power allows countries to secure resources in other parts of the globe.
• TNCs extract raw materials
• Negotiation with foreign governments can ignore wishes of local people

Question 7

Challenges of getting resources

Answer 7

• Geopolitics - some countries may have monopolies on certain resources (OPEC)
• Green politics - refusal to grant extraction rights
• Over reliance - Germany reliance on Russian gas

Question 8

Why is the arctic in particular contested?

Answer 8

• Natural resources - fishing, mining, oil extraction.
• Climate change and higher prices make extraction easier (melting ice) and financially viable
• Contested for who has influence in these regions
• Resource exploitation vs environmental protection in rare wilderness region
• Competing claims of ownership - mostly frozen ocean with overlapping claims (20 miles EEZs)

Question 9

Disputes over arctic land

Answer 9

• us and Canada about boundaries of Beaufort sea
• us and Russia with maritime border Between Bering sea and Arctic Ocean

Question 10

Arctic losses

Answer 10

In 2010, loss of arctic canoe ice and over a estimated it cost world 61 billion - 731 in lost climate cooling services

• by 2050 cumulative global cost from 2.4 to 24.1 trillion

Question 11

ARCTIC WARMING

Answer 11

Since 1951 arctic has warmed roughly twice as much as global average, a 2 oC increase in temp would mean 3-6 oC rise in arctic

Question 12

3.2 overall

Answer 12

When does physical space create political tension - china and spratly islands

Question 13

Chinese claims

Answer 13

• China claims islands within east and south, up to 9. Dash line
• Benefits are natural resources like oil and gas in Sendak islands, extending EEZ - 220 nautical miles into east and south china seas, control worlds busiest shipping lanes - 30% of global trade
• Puts china conflict with countries in the USA’s sphere of influence, since WW2, USA has had significant influence over this region.
• China is becoming more forceful in its claims - militarisation of islanders, building new lands

Question 14

Spheres of

Answer 14

Influence

Question 15

What are spheres of influence

Answer 15

• A reference from colonialism
• Areas of the world linked by the same culture - hard power and soft power
• It’s the spatial extent of your level of control

Question 16

Who else is affected by sphere of influence

Answer 16

• Those on edge may become contested spaces
• Like the accession 8 countries

Question 17

What might get u conflict within spheres of influence

Answer 17

• Changed balance of power - nuclear weapons
• Disputed territories are visited by high ranking officials
• Military sabre rattling - exaggerated military threats
• When new resources are found - like the falklands when Argentina and England both claimed land after the oil was discovered there

Question 18

Spratly islands - who cares

Answer 18

• Worlds busiest shipping lanes (30% of global trade)
• 200 nautical miles influence control much of South China Sea
• very little natural resources - 2km natural land
• claimed by 6 countries
• China is building airstrips
• Philippines pays citizens to live on the islands
• Filipino Navy can’t compete with Chinese

Question 19

Resolving spratly dispute

Answer 19

• JUL 16: international tribute - ruled in favour of the Philippines, saying china has no basis to claim historic rights in SCS
• But China is concerned about ocean control, 1st island chain, also the 9 dash policy is involved

Question 20

Overall is china a threat

Answer 20

• Trade relationships might be more important, and USA still controls world trade, IMF voting power
• USA blue water navy is much stronger, and has allies in Asia
• China has rural poverty, pollution issues, lack of military power, limited cultural influence and issues over Human Rights - and also lacks home grown TNCs

Question 21

Potential economic threat from china

Answer 21

• Major player in global manufacturing
- Key global leader in some sectors e.g. renewable energy
• Generates wealth and rising incomes, although a fraction of the USA on a per capita basis;
• Lacks global brands
• China’s economic power might be judged as its most significant source of power

Question 22

Chine political power

Answer 22

• A lack of internal democracy and openness - viewed with suspicion by traditional Western powers,
• A lack of willingness to act globally unless its direct interests are threatened
• Could say that not getting involved is strength, allowing China to focus on its own development

Question 23

China cultural threat

Answer 23

• Much less global influence – less than India
• But the Beijing Olympics in 2008 did give China a global stage;
• Lack of global brands means it’s cultural reach is relatively small though

Question 24

China military threat

Answer 24

• Some way behind the USA; a large standing army and air force,
• Lacks the global naval military reach of USA, but is developing
• A nuclear armed power which gives it a seat at the ‘top table

Question 25

Other considerations around chinas threat

Answer 25

• Sheer scale of China economically and demographically - means its influence is large and almost bound to grow over time, assuming its economic strength continues to increase. • A number of wider weaknesses could be considered including a rapidly ageing population, major environmental issues and the possibility of regional conflict with its neighbours, these could all derail its progress as an emerging power

Question 26

Superpowers create problems:

Answer 26

• Superpower governments need to legitimise their power, and energises their domestic support • Consumption (e.g. cars) necessitates resource extraction – e.g. deep water oil drilling / or fracking • LT climate change / pollution of waterways is a concern

Question 27

Superpowers don’t create problems environ mainly

Answer 27

• Environmental problems are always 2ndto economic and social • Some foreign governments are demanding things in return for resource extraction – e.g. Angola • Potential Superpowers now have to compete for soft power influence • Green Politics is increasingly influential, particularly as science becomes firmer and clearer

Question 28

3.3 overall

Answer 28

Developing nations have changing relationships with superpowers with consequences for people and the physical environment. - Will India’s demographics help it surpass china in the long term?

Question 29

Senkaku islands

Answer 29

- Islands in East China Sea, controlled by japan since 19th century, china contesting their sovereignty since 1970s - 2012 - Japan’s gov purchased the 3 largest islands from their private owner. - Close to valuable offshore oil and gas fields that would fall into the EEZ of the country that controls the islands

Question 30

Conflict at spratly

Answer 30

- China building military bases and enlarging islands it controls - Philippines paying people to live on islands it controls and buying US navy equipment - July 16 : international tribunal ruled in favour of Philippines, saying china has no basis to claim historic rights in county china sea - UNCLOS - convention on law of the sea says you can’t build in contested areas

Question 31

Conflict at senkaku

Answer 31

- Japan insists islands were surveyed and controlled since 1895, china disputes this. - Militarisation of the army from both sides - china navy sailed pass in 2016 and japan deployed 12 offshore patrol vessels - China declared airspace under their control - planes have to register with china - Symbolic in china - Chinese nationalists held protests in 85 cities in 2012

Question 32

Indias economy

Answer 32

• Quite stop-start, with fluctuating growth rates – this might deter investment • Less hi-tech and more basic commodities, i.e. it depends a lot on imported oil (30%), so it’s vulnerable to price fluctuations. • The number of world class companies has stalled, but it has some, e.g. Tata • Performs poorly in ‘Doing Business’, because of bureaucracy and this limits potential FDI

Question 33

Indias governance

Answer 33

• Companies are state-owned - , quite inefficient and subsidies, particularly for the poor, i.e. they could spend the money elsewhere • There is still some protectionism – protecting domestic jobs. This deters FDI (not as cost effective as it could be)

Question 34

India’s politics

Answer 34

• Still quite a lot of poverty, which drags on the economy, i.e. untapped potential • India does not always meet basic needs – e.g. rural poverty, slums in Dharavi • Govt is spending lots on subsidies to try and revolve this – e.g. toilets • India’s education system is less well funded • Slightly better environmental track record

Question 35

Is India an emerging superpower?

Answer 35

o Demographics – large demographic dividend, i.e. a large working age population without a large ageing one to support BUT: Caste system, general inequality and corruption, poor state governance o Economically – India is poorer – low wage and poverty o Military – budget capped, but it is a nuclear power, but probably would only use it regionally

Question 36

Threats to potential superpower status for India

Answer 36

- can it feed and water everyone? - where spend money to become global power?

Question 37

India global competitiveness 2015

Answer 37

• 3rd largest national market after China and the US. • Growth rate though (7.5%) was higher than China’s and population continues to grow. • Democratic nation: it is easier to counter corruption. • Reforms dismantled India’s state controlled economy by privatising parts of it. • Golden Quadrilateral project, rural health care, national security and education have all seen invested

Question 38

India political relations

Answer 38

• Improved diplomatic relations with Afghanistan - India is the largest aid donor. • China is an important trade partner • USA has supported development of nuclear reactors. • BRIC country and a member of the commonwealth. • Desire for permanent membership of the UN, but there are controversies, such as disputes with Pakistan and Bangladesh

Question 39

Emerging market in India

Answer 39

• Graduates are highly entrepreneurial - technology start ups and a space programme. • Majority of workers are under 25 and fluent in English. • Bollywood sold 3.6 billion tickets in 2014/ (2.6 billion HW). • Tourism contributes 6% of GDP. • The Indian ocean remains a key sea trade route and there are natural harbours

Question 40

Will India become a superpower? part 1

Answer 40

- 3rd highest total gdp in Asia - closing gap on china in % econ growth - high reliance on crude oil imports 30% - exports 20% petroleum - 11 -> 8 Fortune 500

Question 41

Will India become a superpower? part 2

Answer 41

- low ranking to start a business - horror bureaucracy - not increasing military spending - due to be most populated in 2023 - very young population - overpopulation + high inequality