# CogPsy - Chapter XII - DecisionMaking I Flashcards

1
Q

fallacy

A

error in reasoning

2
Q

Model of the homo economicus - 3 assumptions:

A
• HE is fully informed of all possible options and their outcomes
• HE is infinitely sensitive to subtle distinctions among options
• HE is fully rational
3
Q

Subjective expected utility theory:

A

human seek pleasure and avoid pain.

4
Q

2 calculations people do in the subjective expected utility theory:

A

calculating:

• subjective utility
• subjective probability
5
Q

Satisficing:

A

Stopping as soon as a satisfying solution is found.

6
Q

We are rational but within limits:

A

bounded rationality

7
Q

Tversky (1972): Elimination of Aspects

A

We eliminate alternatives by focusing on aspects, one at a time.

8
Q

In representativeness we judge the probability of an uncertain event according to:

A
• how obviously similar it is to the population from which it is drawn
• does it reflect salient features of the process by which it is generated?
9
Q

Example for representativeness:

A

H T H H T H T looks more random than H H H H H T H .

10
Q

Base rate refers to …

A

… prevalance of an event within its population.

Base rate of a heart attack with 60 is higher than with 10.

11
Q

Availability heuristics

A

judgements on the basis of how easily we can call to mind instances of sth.

12
Q

Anchoring

A

e.g. anchoring your estimate of a product of numbers on the first few items:
1 x 2 x 3 x 4 vs. 4 x 3 x 2 x 1

13
Q

Framing

A

The way options are framed / presented influences your decision.

14
Q

3 Biases:

A
• illusiory correlation (seeing correlations where there arent)
• overconfidence
• hindsight bias (looking back on a situation we believe to must have seen all the signs leading up to it -> you wont learn anything from this)
15
Q

3 Fallacies:

A
• Gambler’s Fallacy / Hot Hand (having lost 5 times -> of course I must win now!)
• conjunction fallacy (Lisa, the bank teller)
• sunk-cost fallacy (I have already invested a lot in this car, let’s keep doing so)
16
Q

1 example for a FFH (fast and frugal heuristic)

A

take-the-best heuristic (choose the single, most important criterion and use it)

17
Q

Opportunity costs are the …

A

… prices paid for missed oportunities by choosing another.

18
Q

Successfull decision groups are:

A
• small
• have open communication
• members share a common mind-set
• members identify with group
• members agree on acceptable group behavior
19
Q

3 conditions that may lead to “groupthink”:

A
• an isolated, homogeneous group is empored to make a decision
• high levels of stress
20
Q

6 symptoms of groupthink:

A
• closed-mindedness
• rationalization
• squelching of dissent
• formation of a “mindguard” (a group norm enforcer)
• feeling invulnerable
• feeling of total agreement among members
21
Q

Decision making in the brain?

A

anterior cingulate cortex

22
Q

Reasoning is the process of drawing conclusions …

A

… from principles and from evidence.

23
Q

Deductive reasoning

A

reasoning from one or more general statements to reach a logically certain conclusion

24
Q

conditional reasoning involves …

A

… if-then propositions

25
Q

modus ponens

A

if p, then q.

p therefore q

26
Q

modus tollens

A

if p, then q.

not q, therefore not p.

27
Q

Two deductive fallacies:

A

denying the antecedent: not p -> not q

affirming the consequent q -> p

28
Q

Rule to confirm in the Wason Selection Task:

A

“If a card has a consonant on one side, then it has an even number on the other side.”

29
Q

Instead of formal inference rules it is said that people use …

A

… pragmatic reasoning schemas.