Retrospective vs. Prospective Study
Retrospective looks backward at past data; prospective follows subjects forward into the future.
Case-Control Study
A study comparing people with a condition (“cases”) to people without it (“controls”) to find possible causes.
Rule for Concluding Cause and Effect
Only when the study is a randomized controlled experiment, not an observational study.
Interacting/Confounding Variable
A variable linked to both the explanatory and response variable that can distort the apparent relationship.
Hawthorne Effect (Experimenter Effect)
When participants change behavior because they know they’re being observed.
Random Circumstance
A situation with uncertain outcomes, even if repeated under identical conditions.
Probability of an Event
The long-run proportion of times an outcome occurs in repeated trials.
Personal vs. Relative Frequency Probability
Personal = subjective belief; Relative frequency = based on data from repeated trials.
Sample Space
The set of all possible outcomes in a random circumstance.
Simple vs. Compound Event
Simple = one outcome; Compound = multiple outcomes combined.
Complement of an Event
P(A^c) = 1 - P(A)
Mutually exclusive events
Events that cannot occur together (no overlap).
Conditional probability
The probability that one event occurs given another event already occurred; P(A∣B)
Independent events
When knowing one occurs doesn’t affect the probability of the other; P(A∣B)=P(A)
Sampling With vs. Without Replacement
With replacement = items returned, probabilities stay same; Without = not returned, probabilities change.
Bayes’ Theorem
It updates probabilities using new information; P(A∣B)=
P(A)P(B∣A)/P(B)
Gambler’s Fallacy
The mistaken belief that past random outcomes affect future ones.
Random Variable
A numerical value assigned to outcomes of a random circumstance.
Discrete v. Continuous Random Variable
Discrete = countable outcomes; Continuous = measured on a continuum.
Probability Distribution (PDF)
A rule or table that gives the probability for each possible value of a random variable.
Cumulative Probability Function
Add up values of all probabilities before and equal
Binomial Random Var
Number of successes in n independent trials with same probability p
Binomial Experiment
Fixed n, two outcomes, independent trials, constant probability of success.
Expected Value (Discrete RV)
Multiply each outcome by its probability and sum:
E(X)=∑xP(x).